Topic 3 · Counting & Probability
AMC 10/12 · Topic Cheatsheet

Topic 3 · Counting & Probability

23 key results accumulated across 3 chapters.

Complementary
Ch 1
P(at least one)=1P(none)P(\text{at least one}) = 1 - P(\text{none})
Stars & bars (≥0)
Ch 1
x1++xk=n(n+k1k1)x_1+\cdots+x_k=n \Rightarrow \binom{n+k-1}{k-1}
Stars & bars (≥1)
Ch 1
(n1k1)\binom{n-1}{k-1}
Pre-assign one to each box first.
Inclusion–Exclusion
Ch 1
AB=A+BAB|A\cup B|=|A|+|B|-|A\cap B|
Three-set PIE
Ch 1
+singles −pairs +triple. 'Divisible by' overlaps use the LCM.
Pigeonhole (basic)
Ch 1
nn pigeons in mm holes, n>mn>m ⇒ some hole has 2\ge 2.
Pigeonhole (general)
Ch 1
n pigeons in m holes     hole with n/mn\text{ pigeons in }m\text{ holes}\;\Rightarrow\;\exists\text{ hole with }\lceil n/m \rceil
Casework rule
Ch 1
Split on the tightest constraint. Cases must be exclusive AND exhaustive.
When to switch
Ch 1
More than 3 casework branches? Try complementary counting or bijection first.
Product / sum rule
Ch 2
AND×,    OR+\text{AND}\Rightarrow\times,\;\; \text{OR}\Rightarrow +
Permutations
Ch 2
nPr=n!(nr)!{}_nP_r = \tfrac{n!}{(n-r)!}
Combinations
Ch 2
(nr)=n!r!(nr)!=nPrr!\binom{n}{r} = \tfrac{n!}{r!(n-r)!} = \tfrac{{}_nP_r}{r!}
Basic
Ch 3
P=#favorable#totalP = \tfrac{\#\text{favorable}}{\#\text{total}}
Independent
Ch 3
P(A and B)=P(A)P(B)P(A\text{ and }B) = P(A)P(B)
Complement
Ch 3
P(1)=1P(none)P(\ge1) = 1 - P(\text{none})
Geometric
Ch 3
Probability = favorable area ÷ total area.
Conditional
Ch 3
P(AB)=P(AB)P(B)P(A|B) = \tfrac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}
Bayes
Ch 3
P(AB)=P(BA)P(A)P(B)P(A|B) = \tfrac{P(B|A)\,P(A)}{P(B)}
Total probability
Ch 3
P(B)=P(BA)P(A)+P(B¬A)P(¬A)P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|\neg A)P(\neg A)
Markov recursion
Ch 3
pk=P(transition k ⁣ ⁣)pp_k = \sum_\ell P(\text{transition }k\!\to\!\ell)\,p_\ell with boundary conditions; solve linearly or telescope.
Weighted mean
Ch 3
xˉ=wixiwi\bar x = \tfrac{\sum w_i x_i}{\sum w_i}
Median
Ch 3
2k+12k{+}1 values: middle = (k+1)th(k{+}1)^{\text{th}}. 2k2k values: avg of kth,(k+1)thk^{\text{th}}, (k{+}1)^{\text{th}}.
Unique mode
Ch 3
Strict inequality: every other value appears strictly fewer times.